Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is another development in Trump's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.