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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|