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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.